Axis Bank forecasts India’s economy to grow by 7.5% in real terms for the fiscal year 2026-27, exceeding the broader consensus estimate of 6.8%. Neelkanth Mishra, the bank’s chief economist, expresses optimism about the economic trajectory, attributing potential growth to easing macroeconomic pressures and the positive effects of structural reforms. Despite recent rupee fluctuations, Mishra assures that the depreciation is manageable and does not reflect any fundamental weaknesses in India’s balance of payments.
Positive Economic Outlook
Neelkanth Mishra has shared an encouraging forecast for India’s economy, predicting a growth rate of 7.5% for FY27, significantly above the approximate 6.8% general consensus. He notes that this positive projection stems from a shift from stabilization to acceleration, propelled by easing monetary conditions and the impending benefits of structural reforms. Mishra emphasizes that India is set to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies globally, as effects from recent economic adjustments begin to take shape.
Last year, the growth rate slowed to around 6.5%, mainly due to substantial monetary and fiscal tightening. Mishra estimates that fiscal drag and credit constraints had reduced potential growth by about 3.3 percentage points. However, he anticipates that FY27 will usher in more favorable economic conditions, as monetary policy shifts from restrictive to growth-supportive.
Currency Stability and Market Confidence
Responding to concerns regarding the recent depreciation of the rupee, which has fallen past 91 to the dollar, Mishra describes the decline as a “mild but not wild depreciation.” He reassures stakeholders that India’s balance of payments position is strong, with no structural vulnerabilities needing attention. The fluctuations in the currency are largely attributed to speculative market activities, with Mishra supporting the Reserve Bank of India’s strategy of allowing the rupee to find its natural level.
Looking ahead, Axis Bank’s base case scenario forecasts the rupee drifting to a range of 92-94 by June 2027. Mishra believes the harshest phases of fiscal consolidation are behind the economy, expecting only a minor tightening of around 20 basis points in FY27, compared to 130 basis points in FY25. This reduction in fiscal pressure is predicted to positively influence economic growth.
Structural Reforms and Investment Revival
Mishra emphasizes the significance of structural reforms in enhancing India’s long-term growth potential. He highlights major regulatory changes, including the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and labor reforms in 16 states, which have collectively introduced 38 key measures. These reforms, such as allowing women to work night shifts, are regarded as a “systemic unlock” that can significantly boost productivity and economic output.
Early indications of investment recovery are noticeable, with corporate capital expenditure, excluding the telecom sector, reporting growth of around 15% in the first half of the current fiscal year. As borrowing costs start to decline, Mishra foresees the emergence of a “golden age for Indian entrepreneurship,” driven by increased investment activity and a more conducive business environment.
Policy Recommendations for Sustained Growth
To sustain the economic growth momentum, Mishra outlines several policy priorities. He suggests that current 10-year government bond yields, which are around 6.6%, need to be corrected significantly towards 6.1%. Mishra critiques the government’s long-term borrowing strategy as “too much of a good thing,” advocating for issuing more Treasury bills to help lower yields.
Regarding inflation, Mishra cautions policymakers against hasty monetary tightening, pointing out that considerable slack remains in the economy. He argues that growth rates exceeding trend levels do not require immediate policy adjustments. Axis Bank does not foresee inflation rising to levels that would necessitate policy tightening through 2026, permitting a more measured approach to economic management in the coming years.
Digihunt is not a financial advisor and this is not investment advice.









