India’s Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Likely To Maintain 9% Growth Rate Till Next Fiscal: Report
The country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to maintain a growth rate of 9 per cent in fiscal years 2022 and 2023 amid concerns over the Omicron version of COVID-19, a report said. Is.
The Indian economy grew at 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, as against 20.1 per cent in the April-June quarter.
“We are maintaining our forecast of 9 per cent GDP expansion in FY22, with a clear K-shaped divergence between the formal and informal segments of the economy, and with large gains at the expense of smaller economies.
“Looking ahead, we expect the economy to maintain the same 9 per cent growth in FY2023,” Aditi Nair, chief economist at domestic rating agency Icra Ltd, said in the report.
He expects the percentage of adults who are double-vaccinated to increase to 85-90 percent by March 2022.
Nair said the announcement of booster doses and vaccines for the 15-18 age group is welcome, but it remains to be seen whether all existing vaccines will provide enough protection against the new Omron variant to prevent a third wave in India.
In any case, the new restrictions being introduced by several states to contain the spread of COVID-19 may temporarily hamper the economic recovery, especially in the contact-intensive areas in Q4 FY2022, he said.
However, Nair expects the expansion in FY12 to be more meaningful and tangible than the base effect-based growth in FY12.
“Based on our assumptions of GDP growth, if the COVID-19 pandemic had not emerged, the actual shrinkage that occurred in FY2021 and the expected recovery over the next two years, the net loss to the Indian economy from the pandemic during FY2021 would be -23 in real terms. 39.3 lakh crore is estimated from Rs.
The rating agency said the available data for Q3 FY2022 does not provide strong evidence that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) criteria for a sustainable and sustainable growth recovery have been met, which approved the monetary policy stance in February 2022. Confirms changing to neutral. ,
It believes rising consumption will push capacity utilization above the critical threshold of 75 percent by the end of 2022, which should trigger a broad-based pick-up in private sector investment activity in 2023.
The agency also expects the visibility of tax revenue growth to fuel faster government spending in 2022.